Sunday, January 2, 2011

AAPL Puts or Short

I wouldn't say I'm an expert at all, but I thought I'd post an idea that I had, mainly as a reminder to myself of what I was looking at. After one month, I'll follow up on this simulated trade and check to see if it was a good "business" decision based on likely probability.

Using charts from the TOS (ThinkorSwim) platform I'm entering a trade using the Investopedia Simulator. I like this simulator because of the ability to buy and sell options, but I'm wondering now, if I should just try the "Paper Trading" simulator with the TOS platform? I'll look at that for a later post, but the main point is to look back.

Short Order: $33,000


I was also considering in this test, I'd check the different costs between buying a put and shorting the stock. Above is the order entry for the short from Marketwatch's VSE.

Put Order: $9,600


To the right is a screenshot of my option trade order from Investopedia Simulator. As we look at this trade, you can see I'm considering the Put options on Apple for January 2012. I'm basically making the assumption that the stock price will fall below $330 within the next year. At this time, I'm considering holding this position for 2-3 months depending on whether the future price reaches what I think will be $300. Either way the trade is being simulated, because I don't have 10-35K sitting around to take this risk, but I can still test my theory, scans, and charting.

Along the way, I'll monitor the faux trade, and post my thoughts on where I may have went wrong or right. I've also grabbed another screenshot from the TOS platform to show what I was seeing in the charts that led me to believe the price would likely fall. I'll follow up with a little analysis on that and include that image then.