Friday, December 17, 2010

Jump Into Stocks? Why?

Today I saw an article on the front page of the USA Today paper stating that "It's time to get back into stocks". I'm no expert, but hasn't the market ran up nearly 22% since July? That's a pretty strong return for that short time period. I guess to be fair the article and video series with the experts are primarily looking forward to 2011. My plan today was to write about CDOs and the securitization of debt, but the article caught my eye, and it shifted my focus. I'll focus on the roulette wheel of collateralized debt obligations another time.

Barron's recently reported in their money manager poll, that most consider the market to move higher in the next six months toward July 2011. The bears in the poll were few, though they were present. What's attributing to this consensus? Most recently two things have occurred. The Federal Reserve has started their injection approximately $600 billion into the economy through QE2 (quantitative easing), and secondly the fact that there will be an extension to the Bush tax cuts through the next couple of years.

I've been looking for a statistic or report that shows current debt liabilities in order to determine when the belt starts to get tightened. If you can point me in that direction, that would be great! As long as we operate In Debt We Trust , still spending borrowed, or printed, money, I think this market will continue to rise based on these three factors:

  1. Put off dealing with the debt
  2. Put off increasing taxes
  3. Continue pumping money into the economy

Seems to make sense, so the smart money is saying jump into the market. Out of the three, taxation is the only thing I agree with, and it's only getting passed through because the Obama's congress was downsized. By the way, the smart money are from tarnished companies like Merrill Lynch, BlackRock, and Goldman Sachs. Again, I'm no expert, I'm like you just trying to figure this market stuff out.